Popular beliefs that don't actually drive capital growth
The property market runs on narratives. Most of them don't hold up when you look at the data. Here's what the evidence actually shows.
More people in an area sounds like it should push prices up, and sometimes it does. But when supply keeps pace with demand, population growth on its own turns out to be a pretty weak predictor of capital gains.
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Cafes, parks, and good transport links feel like obvious value-adds, and buyers certainly love them. The problem is that amenities get priced in quickly and rarely drive sustained outperformance over the long run.
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New rail lines and highway upgrades get a lot of media attention and they do move prices. But much of that growth happens well before the project is finished. By the time the ribbon gets cut, the market has usually already moved.
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"Buy close to the city" is one of the oldest rules in property and it sounds logical. But the data shows that plenty of inner suburbs have consistently underperformed outer-ring areas over the same period. Distance from the CBD is not the whole story.
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New builds come with depreciation benefits and a lot of buyer appeal. But when you look at land content and long-run capital growth, older established properties tend to hold a structural advantage that newer stock struggles to match.
Watch the analysisThese videos are shared as educational resources. Our consulting engagements go further, applying rigorous data analysis to your specific market and investment question rather than general principles.